The National Retail Federation’s 2025 survey shows theft rising at an alarming pace. Retailers that track incidents reported a 26% jump in shoplifting and merchandise theft from 2022 to 2023, followed by another significant increase heading into 2024.

The upward trend continued as respondents documented double-digit growth in both shoplifting and merchandise theft over the past year, signaling a sustained and intensifying challenge as retailers prepare for 2026.

Stores that once handled isolated incidents now encounter more frequent theft attempts that disrupt daily operations, strain staff, and reduce already tight margins. Rising crime patterns also influence how shoppers perceive safety inside the store, which shapes customer experience across entire regions.

To make informed security decisions for the year ahead, retailers need clear visibility into current trends. Read on to learn why theft is on the rise, how shoplifting tactics have evolved and what you can do to protect your store.

Key Takeaways

Shoplifting incidents continue to rise across the country as retailers report higher losses and more frequent theft attempts.
Organized retail crime accounts for a significant share of shrink and remains one of the fastest-growing threats to retail operations.
AI-driven surveillance helps retailers identify suspicious activity sooner, strengthen documentation, and support faster in-store response.

The State of Shoplifting

2021: $68.89 billion in goods were stolen from retailers across the country. (Maptitude)
2022: Shrink increased to $112.1 billion, driven by rising external theft and organized retail crime. (National Retail Federation)
2023: Shoplifting incidents increased 93% versus 2019, with shoplifting dollar losses rising 90%. (National Retail Federation)
2024: Shoplifting incidents rose 19% over 2023, and 73% of retailers noted more aggressive shoplifters during the same period. (National Retail Federation)
2025: Stores are estimated to lose $47.8 billion to retail theft, with projections reaching $55 billion by 2028. (Capital One Shopping)

Why Shoplifting is Increasing

Several key factors, from economic conditions to store layouts, are influencing when and how retail theft occurs. Identifying these drivers is essential to guiding smarter investments in security strategies and technologies.

Economic Pressures and Inflation

Rising consumer prices are shifting theft patterns, making everyday essentials like personal care products and over-the-counter medications more common targets. As inflation continues, items that were once low-risk now carry higher theft potential.

This trend forces retailers to rethink loss prevention strategies, especially for products that move quickly and carry narrow margins.

Changing Law Enforcement Priorities

In many regions, law enforcement agencies are redirecting attention from nonviolent shoplifting or other low-level theft offenses to address more urgent public safety concerns. (Risk Management Magazine) As a result, shoplifting often receives slower response times or lower priority.

This reduced enforcement presence can embolden repeat offenders, who may view the risk of consequences as minimal. For retailers, this shift makes in-store prevention and incident documentation even more critical.

Rise of Self-Checkout Theft

More than 20.1 million Americans have stolen from a self-checkout kiosk, and 8.85 million say they plan to do it again, highlighting how common theft has become in these areas. (Capital One Shopping)

Self-checkout offers more anonymity and less direct oversight, and the layout of these stations often gives individuals space to mis-scan, skip scans or conceal items without drawing attention. As more retailers expand self-checkout availability, incidents tied to these lanes continue to rise.

Organized Retail Crime and Large-Scale Theft Statistics

Organized retail crime is the coordinated theft of large quantities of merchandise by groups that plan their activity in advance. These groups study store layouts, staffing patterns and security gaps to carry out high-volume theft that can unfold in minutes.

Because each incident involves multiple participants and high-value goods, ORC contributes significantly to overall shoplifting losses and places added strain on store operations.

In 2025, more than half of retailers reported increases in the following — all linked to organized retail crime groups: (National Retail Federation) Phone scams (70%)Digital and e-commerce fraud (55%)Shoplifting and merchandise theft (52%)Cargo or supply chain theft (50%)
Nearly 66% of retailers reported theft incidents involving transnational organized crime groups, highlighting the scale and sophistication of these operations. (National Retail Federation)

Shoplifting vs. Employee Theft Statistics

Although external shoplifting accounts for a large share of retail shrink, employee theft still represents 28.5% of losses and in some cases approaches one-third of total shrink. (Extenda Retail)

Employee theft often takes place through repeated actions that blend into everyday operations, such as skipped scans, unauthorized discounts, or concealed merchandise removal. That makes this type of theft harder to detect and more damaging when left unaddressed.

Shoplifting Statistics By State

Shoplifting trends vary widely by region. State-level patterns help retailers understand risk and adjust coverage, staffing, and security technology for each market.

California
Florida
Illinois
New York
Texas

California

Shoplifting rose 13.8 % in 2024 and is now 47.5% higher than 2019, with combined shoplifting and commercial burglary incidents increasing 3% in 2024 and 22.8% over 2019. (Public Policy Institute of California)
California’s CHP-led organized retail crime task force recovered more than 150,000 stolen goods worth $8 million in 2025. (Office of the Governor of California)

Florida

In 2024 active organized retail theft cases have increased by 7% along with a 12% increase in defendants convicted. (Florida Office of the Attorney General)

Illinois

In 2024 Chicago, Illinois saw a surge in reported incidents, up to 46% making it the worst year for the city since 2003. (Chicago Sun Times)

New York

Shoplifting incidents increased roughly 63% between 2019 and 2023, from about 17,311 cases in 2019 to roughly 28,316 in 2023. (ABC7 New York (WABC-TV))
Even after a small dip in 2023, shoplifting remained 56% above 2019 levels, making 2023 the second-highest year on record for retail theft in the city. (Manhattan Institute)

Texas

According to a 2024 state-level study, shoplifting cases in Texas rose 40.6% between 2020 and 2023. (TXAN24 News)
In 2022 alone Texas retailers lost an estimated $5.9 billion to retail theft. (KXAN News (Austin))

How Retailers Can Reduce Shoplifting Incidents

Addressing retail theft this holiday season requires a multilayered approach that blends operational training with modern technology. These methods help stores respond earlier and document incidents with higher accuracy.

Investing In AI-Powered Video Surveillance
Access Control Integration For Restricted Areas
Staff Training And Customer Engagement
Partnering With Local Law Enforcement

Investing in AI-Powered Video Surveillance

AI-driven video systems help retailers spot suspicious behavior more quickly, enabling faster intervention and stronger loss prevention than manual monitoring alone. Advanced analytics can detect unscanned items, flag concealment attempts, and recognize irregular movement near high-risk shelves.

Many of these AI-powered security cameras also support facial recognition, making it easier to track individuals who return to the store or move in patterns that suggest repeat shoplifting. By connecting insights across multiple cameras, retailers gain better visibility into suspicious activity and stronger evidence to support investigations.

Access Control Integration For Restricted Areas

Access control systems limit movement into stockrooms, fulfillment areas, and back-of-house spaces by requiring employees to scan a badge, enter a PIN, or use other credentials to gain entry.

When tied to surveillance solutions, these systems create a verified record of who enters sensitive locations and when unusual attempts occur. This helps retailers separate routine activity from behavior that indicates unauthorized access or potential product removal.

Access control becomes especially useful for addressing employee theft and for narrowing investigative focus, since it provides clear audit trails that document internal movement.

Staff Training and Customer Engagement

With 63% of retailers increasing manager training on handling threats and 60% expanding employee training on workplace violence prevention, staff readiness is becoming a key component of loss prevention strategies. (National Retail Federation)

Employees who understand theft indicators can act sooner and respond safely, without putting themselves or their colleagues at risk. Simple interactions, such as greeting customers, offering assistance, or checking in near frequently targeted categories, can discourage shoplifters and reduce opportunities for concealment.

Well-trained staff also know to maintain a more attentive presence in high-risk parts of the store where many incidents originate, such as self-checkout stations. They’ll also document events more clearly after the fact, so stores are better equipped to support investigations.

Partnering With Local Law Enforcement

Consistent communication with local agencies helps retailers strengthen their response to recurring theft patterns. Shared video evidence, time-stamped sequences, and behavior summaries allow investigators to connect incidents across multiple locations.

Many regions also offer crime-prevention assessments that identify vulnerabilities related to lighting, layout or perimeter coverage. These partnerships reinforce store efforts and support broader community initiatives focused on reducing retail theft.

Strengthen Retail Security With Hanwha Vision

Every unmonitored aisle in your retail environment creates an opportunity for theft. In a landscape where shoplifting is growing more organized and opportunistic, retailers need tools that do more than record what happened after the fact.

Hanwha Vision’s AI-powered video analytics help retailers detect suspicious behavior in real time, so they can take action quickly and confidently. They also integrate with access control to verify who enters stockrooms or restricted areas, creating a unified record of movement that supports both internal and external theft prevention.

Beyond basic video recording, Hanwha Vision connects related events across multiple cameras, highlights patterns that indicate repeat offenders, and accelerates forensic search through advanced metadata tagging.

Whether you manage a single store or a multi-location operation, Hanwha Vision gives you the visibility and control needed to reduce loss and protect your bottom line.